My guest today is Liz Lopatto, senior reporter at The Verge, who owns what we cheerfully call the chaos beat. Liz has been writing a lot about prediction markets lately and especially why they all seem so intent on being perceived as sources of news — a position that directly incentivizes insider trading. That, in turn, creates a long list of very predictable problems.
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That’s where we look next. If r = p / q is given at the start, then q doesn’t change and the b